Trump

Iowa Caucuses — What, Me Worry?

Fandango43 Comments

Am I worried that, in the Iowa caucus, the kickoff event for the 2024 presidential primaries, Trump won 51% of the votes, handily beating Florida Governor Ron DeSantis and former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley? Yes and no.

Iowa is largely a white and conservative state and is not entirely representative of the U.S. population. And the Iowa caucus hasn’t always gone on to be the best predictor of who will be the party’s nominee, even less so at predicting who will win the presidency. So there’s that.

The next contest is the New Hampshire primary on January 23rd, followed by four primaries and two caucuses in February. But the big day is March 5th, known as Super Tuesday, where 16 states, including my home state of California, are having primaries or caucuses.

By the way, in case you were wondering what the difference between a primary and a caucus is, here is your answer:

Most states hold primaries 6-9 months before a presidential election. Primary voters choose their preferred candidate anonymously by casting secret ballots, either in person or, in some states, by mail-in ballots. The state where the primary is held takes the results of the vote into account to award delegates to the winners.

Several states hold caucuses in the months leading up to a presidential election. Caucuses are in-person meetings run by political parties that are held at the county, district, or precinct level. Some caucuses choose candidates by secret ballot. Others require participants to divide themselves into groups according to the candidate they support. Undecided participants form their own group. Each candidate’s group gives speeches and tries to get others to join their group. At the end, the number of delegates given to each candidate is based on the number of caucus votes they received.

So even though the Iowa caucus is close to meaningless, I am worried that more than half of the Republican caucus voters in that state stood with Trump. In the first chance Americans had to cast judgment on Trump since he tried to overthrow an election by inciting a siege of the U.S. Capitol Building, and has been charged with 91 felonies in four criminal cases this past year, most Iowa Republicans made clear that they don’t judge Trump. They love him.

If this Svengali-like spell he has over Republican voters continues (or strengthens) through primary season, and if Trump doesn’t either get convicted and sent to jail or die between now and November 5th, I don’t see how he loses to Biden again. And then it’s all over but the shouting for democracy in America.

JYProvocative Question #10

Fandango17 Comments

Our host for the weekly provocative question challenge is Jewish Young Professional, aka JYP.

So what is her provocative question for this week? JYP wants to know…

Have you ever changed your mind on a position stance or changed an opinion you previously held? What was the impetus for the change? Was it difficult for you to admit that your views had changed?

This question is very similar to one WordPress posed about five weeks ago in its Daily Prompt, “What’s a topic or issue about which you’ve changed your mind?”

In my response to the WordPress prompt, I cited two things: My belief in God and my belief in American Exceptionalism. I’m not going to bring up God again, but given what is happening politically, I am going to reiterate my comments on American Exceptionalism.

I believed American exceptionalism well into my adulthood. When I was in high school, my father and I had many arguments over the war in Vietnam. He thought we (the U.S.) had no business fighting that war and wastefully killing so many American soldiers for an unjustified and unjust war.

In the defense of America, I argued that it was a necessary war based upon the infamous “Domino Theory.” The Domino Theory was a prevailing belief that communism was an internationalist movement that would spread from one country to the next until it dominated the world, much as a row of dominos collapses one after the other. 

Vietnam was the key domino to the communization of all of Southeast Asia, the theory went. But by the time I graduated from college, my position on Vietnam had changed radically and I realized that the Domino Theory was bullshit.

Still, I believed in and loved America. but that belief and love were tested in 2000 when George W. Bush was handed the Presidency by the Supreme Court after losing the popular vote. It eroded even further when the incompetent Donald Trump lost the popular vote by almost three million but, due to the antiquated and racist Electoral College, became President.

Trump lost in 2020, but has yet refused to recognize his loss. He instigated an unsuccessful coup against the U.S. government in 2021, and has been indicted this year four times on nearly 100 counts of illegal or unethical acts. Yet he is the leading candidate to win the Republican nomination for the 2024 election. And in head to head polls with President Joe Biden, it’s neck and neck, with Trump, the American traitor, ahead of Biden in some polls.

The only thing about America today that is exceptional is how the insanity of Trumpism has infected the Republican party and is finding favor with evangelical Christians and right-wing white nationalists. It’s a sickness.

I lost my belief in God decades ago. And I’m on the precipice of losing my belief in country. If Trump does run for president next year and wins, I will lose my belief in and love for my country. Because that country will no longer exist.

Reblog: Republicans are Not on Our Side

Fandango2 Comments

Here’s an interesting and informative post by A.R. Linder. He asks an interesting question throughout his post, that question being “Whose side are they on?”

One item that Linder didn’t point out that I think begs the same question is that, in a recent CNN poll, 71% of Republicans told pollsters Congress should stop sending more assistance to Ukraine. Among Democrats, 62% favor more funding for Ukraine.

One factor driving Republican sentiment could be called “the Trump effect.” Campaigning to return to the White House, the former president so dominates the party’s consciousness that his doubts about Ukraine aid have had an enormous effect on Republicans as a whole.

Before Donald Trump, Republicans were not the type to abandon a fight for a strategic partner’s democracy, handing a potential victory to Russian President Vladimir Putin. They were the warriors of the Cold War who brought about the collapse of the Soviet Union. But now, Trump, always a fanboy of Vladimir Putin is encouraging the U.S. to abandon our ally, democratic Ukraine, and hand Putin a victory. Whose side are the on?

Please take a few minutes to read this post:

Utah’s Republican Senator Mitt Romney has a book coming that will allege there are Republicans who no longer believe in our Constitution, are …

Republicans are Not on Our Side

WDP — The T-Word

Fandango21 Comments
Daily writing prompt
If you had to give up one word that you use regularly, what would it be?
View all responses

I would gladly give up using the T-word: Trump. I would be happy to never have to utter that word ever again.

I’d even be willing to stop using that word as a way to say that something is getting the better of something else, like aces trump kings or throwing down a trump card.

Better yet, I’d gladly give up seeing his ugly, smug face everywhere.

Alas, I occasionally publish political posts on my blog and it’s likely that the name Trump and the image of the man will continue to appear here. But I pledge to keep it to a minimum.

Fandango’s Provocative Question #229

Fandango47 Comments
FPQ

Welcome once again to Fandango’s Provocative Question. This is going to be my last weekly Provocative Question post. My first one was on November 14, 2018 and I have really enjoyed coming up with interesting, challenging questions to pose each week. Most of all, I have looked forward to your thoughtful, articulate, and often equally as provocative responses. But after four years and nine months of weekly provocative questions, I think it’s time for me to step aside. Perhaps someone else will pick it up. I hope so.

My last provocative question is about something as American as the Electoral College system, and that is it’s two party system.

We are at an interesting time, politically speaking, in America. As we are only about 14 months from the 2024 U.S. presidential election and polls find that most Americans do not want either Biden or Trump to run again. But at this juncture, it’s hard to imagine that they won’t be the respective Democratic and Republican nominees for that election. So what about candidates from other parties?

There is nothing in the U.S. Constitution that requires or spells out that the United States must be a political system dominated by two parties. But, since the mid 1800s, every U.S. president has been either a Republican or a Democrat. Because the Electoral College is a winner-take-all system, it strongly reinforces the binary nature of U.S. politics. As I explained here, in every state but Maine and Nebraska, all electoral votes to are awarded to a single candidate. That greatly reduces the chance a third-party candidate could amass the 270 electoral votes that are needed to win the presidency.

There are now, and always have been, third parties in the U.S., but they have historically played a relatively minor role. Democrats and Republicans, the two dominant parties have received at least 94% of votes in all but four presidential elections over the past 100 years. Periodically, outsiders running on other party lines have intentionally or unintentionally served as spoilers, peeling off enough votes to change the winner of the election.

I once voted for a third-party candidate. In 1980, I voted for third-party candidate, John Anderson, when I just couldn’t bring myself to vote for Republican candidate Ronald Reagan or Democratic candidate, Jimmy Carter. Anderson got only 6.6% of the popular vote and no electoral votes and Ronald Reagan easily won the presidency.

There are at least two “third-party” groups that will be fielding candidates for president in 2024, the Green Party and a new entry, the “No Labels” Party, which was formed in 2010 by a group of centrist Republican and Democratic lawmakers. Its members have secured ballot access in 10 states, intend to raise $70 million, and say they will announce by March whether they will launch a bipartisan “unity ticket.”

But analysts are skeptical of No Labels’ claim of having a path to victory. Instead, its candidate could ensure that no candidate gets 270 Electoral College votes, sending the choice of president to the House of Representatives, which has a Republican majority.

Third-party candidacies do not have much of a record of winning elections, but they can take enough votes from a handful of voters within a handful of states to have a dramatic impact.

Former GOP strategist and Lincoln Project co-founder Rick Wilson argues that No Labels’ “centrist do-gooder” positioning is deeply misleading. “What could possibly go wrong?” he asks. “The thing that could go wrong is the election of Donald Trump.”

So this week’s provocative question is this:

If you are American, have you ever voted for a presidential candidate who was neither the Democratic or Republican candidate? Would you like to see more third-party candidates and a movement away from predominantly a two-party system?

If you are not American, what are your thoughts about America’s two party system.

If you choose to participate in Fandango’s Provocative Question, you may respond with a comment or write your own post in response to the question. Once you are done, tag your post with #FPQ and create a pingback to this post if you are on WordPress. Or you can simply include a link to your post in the comments. But remember to check to confirm that your pingback or your link shows up in the comments.