Welcome once again to Fandango’s Provocative Question. This is going to be my last weekly Provocative Question post. My first one was on November 14, 2018 and I have really enjoyed coming up with interesting, challenging questions to pose each week. Most of all, I have looked forward to your thoughtful, articulate, and often equally as provocative responses. But after four years and nine months of weekly provocative questions, I think it’s time for me to step aside. Perhaps someone else will pick it up. I hope so.
My last provocative question is about something as American as the Electoral College system, and that is it’s two party system.
We are at an interesting time, politically speaking, in America. As we are only about 14 months from the 2024 U.S. presidential election and polls find that most Americans do not want either Biden or Trump to run again. But at this juncture, it’s hard to imagine that they won’t be the respective Democratic and Republican nominees for that election. So what about candidates from other parties?
There is nothing in the U.S. Constitution that requires or spells out that the United States must be a political system dominated by two parties. But, since the mid 1800s, every U.S. president has been either a Republican or a Democrat. Because the Electoral College is a winner-take-all system, it strongly reinforces the binary nature of U.S. politics. As I explained here, in every state but Maine and Nebraska, all electoral votes to are awarded to a single candidate. That greatly reduces the chance a third-party candidate could amass the 270 electoral votes that are needed to win the presidency.
There are now, and always have been, third parties in the U.S., but they have historically played a relatively minor role. Democrats and Republicans, the two dominant parties have received at least 94% of votes in all but four presidential elections over the past 100 years. Periodically, outsiders running on other party lines have intentionally or unintentionally served as spoilers, peeling off enough votes to change the winner of the election.
I once voted for a third-party candidate. In 1980, I voted for third-party candidate, John Anderson, when I just couldn’t bring myself to vote for Republican candidate Ronald Reagan or Democratic candidate, Jimmy Carter. Anderson got only 6.6% of the popular vote and no electoral votes and Ronald Reagan easily won the presidency.
There are at least two “third-party” groups that will be fielding candidates for president in 2024, the Green Party and a new entry, the “No Labels” Party, which was formed in 2010 by a group of centrist Republican and Democratic lawmakers. Its members have secured ballot access in 10 states, intend to raise $70 million, and say they will announce by March whether they will launch a bipartisan “unity ticket.”
But analysts are skeptical of No Labels’ claim of having a path to victory. Instead, its candidate could ensure that no candidate gets 270 Electoral College votes, sending the choice of president to the House of Representatives, which has a Republican majority.
Third-party candidacies do not have much of a record of winning elections, but they can take enough votes from a handful of voters within a handful of states to have a dramatic impact.
Former GOP strategist and Lincoln Project co-founder Rick Wilson argues that No Labels’ “centrist do-gooder” positioning is deeply misleading. “What could possibly go wrong?” he asks. “The thing that could go wrong is the election of Donald Trump.”
So this week’s provocative question is this:
If you are American, have you ever voted for a presidential candidate who was neither the Democratic or Republican candidate? Would you like to see more third-party candidates and a movement away from predominantly a two-party system?
If you are not American, what are your thoughts about America’s two party system.
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