Welcome once again to Fandango’s Provocative Question. Each week I will pose what I think is a provocative question for your consideration.
By provocative, I don’t mean a question that will cause annoyance or anger. Nor do I mean a question intended to arouse sexual desire or interest.
What I do mean is a question that is likely to get you to think, to be creative, and to provoke a response. Hopefully a positive response.
As I write this, the United States has had more than 1.23 million cases of COVID-19 and more than 72,000 deaths. According to the latest projections from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), by early August, the American death toll is likely to exceed 134,000. And that’s a conservative projection.
Yet despite these very disturbing projections, many states are “opening back up for business,” even though most medical professionals and scientists have noted that the case and death rate will likely shoot up as a result.
This seems to be fine with our president, who is encouraging states and businesses to reopen. Trump admitted that it is “possible” that many more Americans will die as stay-at-home orders are lifted. He told reporters that some people would be affected badly, “but we have to get our country open, and we have to get it open soon.”
And even though the rate of infection shows no sign of slowing, Vice President Pence told reporters yesterday that the federal government’s coronavirus task force could be dismantled in the next month because “of the tremendous progress we’ve made as a country.”
So here are my provocative questions for this week.
Do you think it’s premature for states to be lifting the stay-at-home, shelter-in-place, and social distancing restrictions? Or do you believe that it’s about time they were rescinded? Once they are removed, how quickly are you likely to resume living your life as you did in the pre-pandemic days?
For those of you who don’t live in the U.S., consider the country you do live in when you answer these questions.
If you choose to participate, write a post with your response to the question. Once you are done, tag your post with #FPQ and create a pingback to this post if you are on WordPress. Or you can simply include a link to your post in the comments. But remember to check to confirm that your pingback or your link shows up in the comments.
This, That, and the Other 
I will be really interested to read people’s responses to this one Fandango. I am not in the States, but I think Trump is an idiot over this. But that of course is an understatement. I can see that you have to get countries going again, and of course we have the same dilemma here in the U.K. many people here have said that if the lockdown is eased, they still will not feel safe to go out, though many will have to, however scared they are. I am not sure what is happening in Sweden now, but they carried on as normal, and everyone thought it would go bananas there, but it didn’t seem to. Must look and see what it is doing now in Sweden. Your question is a very interesting one Fandango. And a very important one.
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I haven’t followed closely how Sweden is doing, but relative to Norway and Finland, both of which had lockdowns, Sweden has many more cases and deaths.
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That is interesting to know Fandango. Thankyou for telling me that. Personally, though I do not live in the States, I would be happiest if the lockdown continued for a while until the number of deaths and cases went down much more. If I lived in the States I would not be happy at what Trump is proposing.
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And as a resident of the States, I am not happy with what he’s proposed.
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Neither would I be! He’s just proving himself to be the lunatic we knew he was!
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http://paperkutzs.com/2020/05/06/fandangos-provocative-question/
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I have a sister in Georgia and I am in the UK. We are scared for her, I have been shielding since 14th March …. I will stay put until I am told it is safe. I can only speak for myself but yes it is too early in my opinion. The second wave of Spanish flu took double that of the first wave. That alone makes me cautious, Germany released and they have now spiked. I will not be selfish, I am not asked to live in a trench or queue for rations. Quite the con try, I am asked to be still be safe and be kind.
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The second wave of the 1918 Flu was deadlier than the first was because the virus mutated in the summer due to soldier movement and interaction. There is no sign of the current virus mutating. Like all corona-viruses, it originates in animals (mostly bats) but usually stay limited to the animal kingdom. There have been seven that have mutated to make the leap to humans through an intermediary (in this case, the pangolin) and Covid-19 is the 7th.
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This is nice of you to tell me, though I have read extensively on the subject of covid. My point being that until it does something different we as a whole do not know for certain what happens next. So I chose caution, as many do. I will hold fire on ‘escaping’ until ‘I’ feel ready. But I will not be rushing to blow in the faces of strangers or snog some random person … at least not before I feel strong and able to withstand the inevitable whisp that will come my way. As I am sure we will all carry or get some level of co-19 before it can be vaccinated for. Or as my childhood self may have said ‘before its dipaseared’.
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I think it will follow all the same path as the other coronaviruses. Why wouldn’t it?
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For the same reason as I ate a giant Marshmallow for breakfast … because I could. 😉
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Some scientists are suggesting that there has been some mutation to the virus, but that hasn’t been confirmed.
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Studies from Arizona have been released through prepublication and will be in the journals soon. Their study supports other European studies that found the second strain is the one with the deleted gene sequences. SARS did this as well. It’s the last ditch effort of the virus. If I recall correctly, more than 80 chunks are deleted. It means it is easier to transmit but much weaker. On the bright side of things, no virus has gone suicidal and mutated to airborne yet lol
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Studies are being released from Singapore, UK, Germany, Italy, and the US. Here’s the ASU study. https://jvi.asm.org/content/early/2020/04/30/JVI.00711-20
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Georgia was one of the first states to relax the restrictions, opening up such “essential” businesses as tattoo parlors, massage parlors, and bowling alleys.
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Beaches, nail bars hairdressers 😖😢
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🙄
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I work for a division of a company that was the first to come back because we are tied to the construction industry- and there were conditions on which of those companies could start back up again. So we are going in stages and I’m fine with that. But I can’t imagine tattoo parlors being high on the list. I mean. Tattoo parlors? REALLY?
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I guess there is a powerful tattoo parlor lobby in Georgia.
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I am probably going to be the outlier on this one. Should we have closed? Yes, and we should have done it in January when the first US case was identified. Should we remain closed now? No. Nearly everyone in the US will, at some point in time, be exposed to the virus. Exposure does not equal contracting it–that depends a lot of the individual who was exposed and a plethora of other factors. Are there going to be spikes? Yes. There would have been anyway as people blatantly disregarded self-quarantine orders if they were presumed positive. Every state has had a small outbreak caused by one person’s demand for temporary freedom. With the three-tier path implemented by most states (and yes, most states and cities are using a three-tier opening system) it allows lives to slowly return to normal without overwhelming the medical system. In large cities, most people have already been exposed and either had it, have it, or will not contract it. That doesn’t mean people are immune, it simply means they have a strong enough immune system to fight it off – or – they practice good personal hygiene in the first place. In smaller, more spread out areas, like Kansas, there are counties without a single case. For those individuals, this has disrupted lives and incomes for no reason. That is one reason many people are upset. Even in my county of 60,000, we’ve had 40 cases. All but 3 were from known exposures to people who tested positive. In the earliest weeks of the shut down, our cases were because people traveled to known outbreaks, because, you know, traveling is more important than personal health and safety. As cases increased, it was family members of the first cases, then more from traveling in-state despite being asked to stay home. All of this is beside the point. The point is, we are seeing a high rate of infection because it is novel. Medicines being investigated are for treatment, not prevention. Yes, there are vaccine trials but, let’s face it, it takes years for a vaccine and why one Earth would anyone agree to a rushed vaccine? Each city and state should be allowed to do what they feel is best for their community.
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My concern, Teresa, is that so few people, relatively speaking, have been tested for the virus, and that the numbers of those who have the virus and who have died from it are well understated. How confident are you that, with 60,000 people in your county, only 40 actually have the virus? How many of those 60,000 have been tested. Even 1%? Probably not. I do hope you’re right and it’s time to get on with our lives, but I’m worried that too many will throw caution to the wind and the results will be devastating.
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Oh, we’ll never know how many people actually have or had it, just as with any virus. As a county, we’ve tested just over 1% of the county, but with a 5% positive rate. That means 95% of time, it’s something other than the virus making someone cough or have a fever. Your odds of contracting it by walking past someone in the store or on the street is slim. Your odds of contracting it because of prolonged exposure to someone shedding the virus is much higher. Hence, why the “if you’re sick, stay home” motto works for all viruses. When someone tests positive, the household goes into lockdown. This allows for more containment and mitigates the risk to the general public. Do I believe no one else has/had it? Of course not. As with most other viruses, how it manifests in a person ranges. However, even if you multiply the positive rate by 10, you’re still at less than 1% infection rate for the county. San Francisco County’s current reported positives is less than 1% of the county’s population. That’s not to say having a million cases isn’t high. It is. And the 3-10% of the people who die from it certainly didn’t intend for that to happen. However, we have mitigated much of the risk and are allowing scientists to track the virus and it is revealing itself to be like all other coronaviruses, including mutating that leads to its own demise. The majority of cases being reported now (at least in the US) are from the 2nd strain which has deleted parts of its genetic code. This is why SARS died out the way it did. When we focus on large numbers (like the number of active cases & number of deaths), as horrible as those are, we don’t put them into perspective. There are 322 Million people in the US. We would need to reach 3 Million active cases to reach just 1% of the population. I’m not downplaying anything, just keeping things in perspective.
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I know it is a very very concerning situation. Working for the NHS I am seeing what this virus is doing. However, I truly do not envy those having to make these decisions. People are losing jobs, businesses, scared of losing homes. Rates of domestic abuse are increasing.
I am politically neutral, but I do respect that someone or a group of people needs to make a decision as to when to allow people to go about trying to operate their businesses in a safe sensible way. For some industries, I do not know how they will manage that and still make some kind of profit.
I personally have seen whenever I go to work that some people are scared of this virus. They try to stay four metres away from anyone else and they are clad in PPE. Others are clearly not as worried and walk past each other less than a metre apart in a casual way, no PPE. Many people here in the UK are being left to follow the direction within their own understanding of it. People have not been asked to wear PPE to leave the house, but some want to do that. People have been asked to keep a 2 metre distance, but it is almost impossible for people to do that all of the time at supermarkets and on busy areas.
And I still see lots of people well into their 70s and 80s doing their own shopping and collecting their own prescriptions. That concerns me greatly. There are lots of volunteers in this area who are very keen to help. I am not sure why some of our older ones are out at the supermarkets and pharmacies. Yeah…I am slightly baffled. Such is self-determination though.
I can understand why many younger people want to go back to normal with their work, businesses and social life. But there will be a price to pay for each lifting of restrictions. I am so so so glad that call is not up to me. I would not be able to sleep at night.
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It is a tough call, and no matter which way the call goes, there will be some who agree and some who disagree.
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I think so. In some ways…no matter what the decision, some will suffer. Either suffer physically and end up in hospital, or suffering fatality OR suffer economic losses and the stress of how to provide for family etc.
So it is a really tough decision, because no matter what the decision is – there will be suffering.
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Yes, it is time to ease restrictions and allow businesses to re-open. I think the public is getting impatient as well. Despite a shelter-in-place or stay-at-home orders in California, there were some local privately owned restaurants that opened in Southern California. The restaurant had a line waiting out the door. Everyone was still practicing social distancing inside but the business was open. I think we created awareness to COVID-19, we have adopted new social practices and the world has ultimately changed. It’s time to move forward with our lives.
http://www.myhowtoblogsite.com
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As a senior citizens, I’m not ready to go eating at restaurants or to “non-essential” retailers. I’ll take my time. I want to live to see 2021.
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And that’s a very responsible decision. I think people should be given tbat decision. Lift the restriction. If you want to go out, go out. If you want to be cautious still and stay in, you can do that.
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Of course I do and was saddened to see one of my grandsons is back at his sales job today. Now they’re talking about a second and third wave being worse as in past pandemics. Where is the logic in opening up? I guess it’s the same as protesting wearing riot gear and brandishing guns.
Sent from my iPad
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Oh I so want to answer. And maybe I will.
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I’m annoyed that they did this long enough to have an excuse to give ridiculously rich people tons of money from taxpayers, and now it’s time to open.
Tests — the lack of. A plethora of incompetence, corruption, and greed.
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https://www.msnbc.com/rachel-maddow/watch/coronavirus-crisis-compounded-by-disastrous-trump-admin-decisions-83066949765
There’s a bit of information in here from a meat packing plant just north of the Kansas City metropolitan area (in st. Joseph Missouri, considered by some to be part of the Kansas City [largely Kansas City Missouri or KCMO but including Kansas City Kansas or KCK] metropolitan area — as Leawood and Overland Park and beyond in Kansas are considered part of it too). There’s a piece about New Mexico as well, from a couple days ago, a little like a story from Kansas today. But the main gist is Trump/Trump-led incompetence and corruption (a very short version relatively speaking, as I have been paying attention the whole time).
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There’s a bit of information in here from a meat packing plant just north of the Kansas City metropolitan area (in st. Joseph Missouri, considered by some to be part of the Kansas City [largely Kansas City Missouri or KCMO but including Kansas City Kansas or KCK] metropolitan area — as Leawood and Overland Park and beyond in Kansas are considered part of it too). There’s a piece about New Mexico as well, from a couple days ago, a little like a story from Kansas today. {Oops.}
The above quotation pertains to my 3:50 pm posted video, not (as I accidentally thought) the one at 3:37 pm. The 3:37 one, then, includes reference to, rather, a Virginia meat packing plant and only properly involves this end of the quotation of my characterization:
But the main gist is Trump/Trump-led incompetence and corruption (a very short version relatively speaking, as I have been paying attention [to the administration’s self-contradictory (at best) and any where from heartless (which seems to be considered best practice by people unlike myself) to self-absorbed approach] the whole time).
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http://kmbc.com/article/kansas-city-unveils-soft-opening-plan-to-reopen-businesses-may-15-coronavirus-covid-19-10-10-10-rule/32316374?src=app
Since I spoke some about the Kansas City metropolitan area, I thought I’d share this; the article applies to the Missouri city of Kansas City specifically, and not to the whole metropolitan area. It indicates the idea of being “allowed” with regard to the sixth — but there also seems to be an element of being required to reopen by the fifteenth (actually… it’s likely an employee being required to work if the employer opens… while the heading has a funky reading too).
Kansas City announces ‘10/10/10 Rule’ plan allowing all businesses to reopen no later than May 15
[updated 10:08 PM CDT April 29 2020]
….
Under the plan that [begins] May 15, all Kansas City businesses will be able to open but are subject to a “10/10/10 Rule.”
…. any Kansas Citian who does not yet feel safe returning to a nonessential workplace cannot be compelled by their employer to return prior to May 15. Lucas [the mayor] said from May 6 to May 15, “No one actually has to come back to work earlier than they are ready.”
MAY 15
Phase one of the full 10/10/10 plan allows buildings and businesses that service the public to reopen with 10% building occupancy or 10 people allowed inside a business, whichever is greater. Sign-ins with contact information will be required for anyone who visits a business for more than 10 minutes.
Plus, social gatherings up to 10 people inside or 50 people outside will be allowed. This includes weddings, funerals and religious services. But businesses and organizations must gather contact information on all attendees.
Establishments such as grocery stores, medical and dental offices, pharmacies, and other essential businesses are not subject to the “10/10/10 Rule,” the city said.
[I’ve skipped three paragraphs.]
In addition to this new set of rules, Lucas said the city’s State of Emergency has been extended an additional 90 days, which will allow the city to better regulate the size of gatherings and events.
…
City officials said if the positive test percentage remains on a downward[*] trend, they hope to allow larger events, perhaps up to 50 people or 50 percent some time in June, and a return to full capacity won’t be likely until later this summer.
Kansas City’s “10/10/10 Rule” is expected to be enforced by the health department. Violations of this order “constitute an imminent threat,” and “create an immediate menace to public health.” Businesses in violation may be subject to a fine, or may be ordered to suspend business.
This taking of names and more actually seems like a new element of strictness, other than the fact nonessential business can open.
[* Subsequent to that announcement date, hundreds of meat packers north of the city (considered part of the metropolitan area but not the city jurisdiction) tested positive — something like sixty (last time I checked) of those individuals live in the actual city. Thus, I think, that downward trend didn’t continue. Of course, if officials just play with the numbers by testing more when they obtain more tests, they can effect a different percentage on outcome.]
The state, Missouri, as a whole, had already (before the sixth) opened business and non-business gathering and church. (However, the greatest number of requirements apply to nursing homes in that state… whereas not all states are being as careful with the elderly.) The overall requirement is to continue with “social distancing” even within any ordinary re-opened venue in Missouri.
Localities in Missouri [like Kansas City and St. Louis and, hopefully, smaller townships] are said to be permitted stricter rules, as they see fit, than the broad state as a whole. (It’s not unheard of for other governors to demand that their more localized areas within their states can not have stricter rules. Who knows which approach will hold enforceable or justifiable legally? In New Mexico, the governor gave the go ahead for a new mayor to completely shut down his particularly-affected area [not only businesses or venues but the whole place] to outsiders — just recently.)
Missouri is seeking to test more. They also had a press briefing, today (I would suppose it was from Jefferson City). It most notably involved speaking of developing an immunization right there in Missouri. I guess we will see. (But the governor didn’t want to answer, or hadn’t thought through, whether the vaccination will be free to the public; he mentioned a guess as to health insurance.)
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http://kmbc.com/article/missouri-reports-148-new-coronavirus-covid-19cases-friday-bringing-state-total-to-9489/32417751?src=app
Missouri’s statewide stay-at-home expired Sunday. Gov. Mike Parson outlined the “Show Me Strong Recovery Plan” on Monday to reopen businesses throughout the state on May 4. Under the plan, businesses that were considered “nonessential” by the federal government may resume operations in Missouri on Monday, but strict social distancing guidelines will be required.
It’s worth noticing that it has been a federal, not state or local, designation to call some businesses essential and some not. Trump fans go running out there carrying pro-Trump signs and yelling at their governors and police officers… when there was an effort to respect the president (perhaps only a fool’s errand).
[And, yes, thinking back to the other local news app article I shared, not only cities and townships can go forward differently from the state as a whole… counties can too, as this article indicates with another example.]
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https://apple.news/APb8o4sE1T1Sy5eyb-qPoog
Chris Hayes: The president has a plan. It just doesn’t involve you or me. Thursday, May 7
You really have to see this. It’s not only the president who feels special and self-righteous.
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I don’t know. I’m amused by all the people who think they know so much. We suddenly have a gazillion epidemiologists in the USA, when just a couple months back everyone was a constitutional scholar. We’ll see what happens…
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Donald Trump isn’t an expert on anything at all, other than bullying, lying, and greed. But lots of people listen to him.
As Trump Claims “Fantastic Job” on COVID: Scientific Reporter Laurie Garret Warns Pandemic My Last …
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May [not “My”] Last. It certainly is lasting; the question is how long and with what details.
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For the “conservative” set, who complain about “flyover country” as a habit:
https://www.msnbc.com/rachel-maddow-show
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Okay. I am really unhappy about the way the MSNBC website has been reconfigured, apparently worse and worse in terms of accessibility — even though it’s slick and great, informative and helpful too. Unless you go to the site a certain way, you click “Copy” and you don’t pick up the specific video you’re looking at…
… but I have now found a way to get the specific video (it’ll be over if you blink):
https://www.msnbc.com/rachel-maddow/watch/decreasing-new-york-curve-disguises-national-coronavirus-increase-83067461857
Maybe “a nine-eleven per day” doesn’t matter to Trumpites if it’s not in the New York metropolitan area?
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I’m not going to post an answer to this. Because there is no question! Those that believe there is a question, might as well vote TRUMP! I’m glad I don’t have a vote. I’d rather not feel responsible for what surely lies ahead.
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My contribution: http://sparksfromacombustiblemind.com/2020/05/06/fpq-5-6-2020/
It could be considered inflammatory, just sayin’. Not to YOU, Mr. Fandango, but to some people.
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Whatever floats your boat, Melanie. Bug maybe, when and if you do venture out, you should consider wearing a mask. I do, plus latex, disposable gloves.
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https://www.msnbc.com/rachel-maddow/watch/covid-death-toll-model-projections-increased-as-states-reopen-83022917545
Rachel Maddow looks at how the model from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation that the White House had been relying on for coronavirus projections has corrected its assumption that Americans would stay home to prevent further spread of the disease and now projects a significantly greater number of deaths. May 4, 2020
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I agree with the pcguy: While there is a deep dark part of me that would just like to see the restrictions lifted across the board, I understand that isn’t necessarily wise or realistically feasible, so this phased approach seems a reasonable compromise, especially if the checks are genuinely met before moving to the next phase.
Honestly, I haven’t felt restricted… so I hope phase one in my area isn’t much different from what I’ve already thought was going on.
I’ve been trying to find an article I saw earlier, today, from my home state (state of birth) in order to show a series of four steps and the “checks.”
However, there are restaurants around that won’t be able to be busy as usual, if they will be open at all (even if allowed). I hope they’ll be helped through.
At the same time, some places, that weren’t very safeguarded in the first place, should be corrected so that they aren’t as “who-the-hell-cares” as they have been.
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An excellent question Fandango … aside from the fact that Trump is a buffoon and Johnson over here is not that far behind – his only saving grace was that he caught the virus and can therefore vouch for the seriousness of it all – BUT they screwed up in closing this country down. The only reason this country had to be closed the way it was is because both governments Labour and Conservative over the last twenty years have seriously flucked with the budgets on all services including the NHS. We do not have a utility that can cope and so thge country had to be closed. T/May screwed up our police force long before she was Prime Minister and we are still trying to recover that … is it too early to reopen? Maybe, or maybe we should never have shut down in the first place to the degree that we did.
Yes C-19 is a terrible virus that is killing people, but everyone governmentally speaking has screwed this up, the British, The Americans, the Chinese and the list goes on. This is with us for the rest of our future history and yet l cannot help but think that sadly we have some serious profit to be made from our lives being lost by our so called governments who care. The Chemical giants are set to make incredible profits from our death.
Is C-19 really as bad as it is being made out to be? There is a lot of destructive and constructive information coming out of all sorts of places. I have watched societies, peoples and governents criticise every one in this episode of our lives. we need to stop exercising blame and just get on with trying to salvage what we can.
Yesterday is GONE, that is never coming back – the governments of this world have terrified us all to follow every restriction they laid down before us and we follow like sheep because we fear dying before we need to and horribly.
That fear has now made more than 50% of seriously affected nations mortified of their futures … the fear of a second global wave of the virus is terrifying, if it mutates it will be worse and yet, l now have a nagging sensation in my gut that NOT all is at it appears to be.
BUT one thing for sure … our lives in our tomorrows are now set and established by buffoonery and greed and mismanagements.
Should countries reopen … yes of course – we have to if we keep hiding away we are further damaging our mental health and our hopes and more importantly our immune systems.
Excellent question my friend.
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Thank you, Rory, for your well thought out and articulate response.
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Thank you for the question Fandango, my apologies for the typos … l am somewhat vexed in certain arenas with this topic and didn’t take the time to read through my response properly.
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No worries. The gist of your comment came through loud and clear!
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Great 🙂
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I definitely think it is too soon to lift everything and go back to life as usual. I know I will continue to stay home except for necessary trips (doctor, pharmacy and groceries) and I certainly will keep wearing a mask until it is deemed safe by the doctors and scientist who know more about this by FAR than the government does. I’d like to hold out hope that if there is another surge the government will be wise enough to shut down once again, I am afraid though once it is opened back up it will stay that way.
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“I know I will continue to stay home except for necessary trips (doctor, pharmacy and groceries) and I certainly will keep wearing a mask until it is deemed safe by the doctors and scientist who know more about this by FAR than the government does.” Me, too, Leigha. Me, too.
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I think you pretty much answered your own question. I’m going to be very very careful. Until there’s a viable vaccine — and we can GET some of it — that virus will keep doing what viruses do: multiply. Until most of us are immune, resistant, or dead, it will keep coming around and possibly in a new form.
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I think you’re right and I’m not about to rush out to restaurants and go shopping or to the movies until I feel pretty sure it’s safe…and that could months from now.
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